Week 10 Rankings & Final NQS Scenarios

Full NQS Tracker with regionals projections

Any scores in BOLD can no longer be dropped.

Regional seeding placements are:
1-8-9-16
2-7-10-15
3-6-11-14
4-5-12-13

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 198.110
Possible ranking range: 2-5

Florida is at least slightly vulnerable to UCLA and Utah this week and so will be looking for a 198.000 at SECs to sew up a spot at either 2 or 3 and a #1 regionals seeding.

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 198.035
Possible ranking range: 3-7

While Utah has the same maximum as UCLA, Utah is also somewhat vulnerable to being dropped lower in the rankings by LSU, Cal or both. So the first priority at Pac-12s will be a 198.175 to clinch at least a final ranking of #5 and a spot at the 4-5-12-13 regional. The minimum score needed to try to challenge Florida is a 198.450 (and then Florida would have to cooperate), but you never know.  

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 197.750
Possible ranking range: 8-11

Kentucky moved up from 12th to 8th this week with a huge 197.800 road score. There’s no chance for Kentucky to move any higher than 8th but can hold onto 8th with a 197.825 at SECs, and can clinch a spot in the 1-8-9-16 regional with a 197.800. Because these 8-13 teams are so closely bunched, it’s going to take very high numbers to guarantee things.

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 197.730
Possible ranking range: 8-13

Michigan State could get as high as 8th, but since Kentucky and Alabama have higher maximums, will be somewhat dependent on those teams. MSU can guarantee a spot in the final top 10 by scoring 197.850 or better at Big Tens. 

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 197.735
Possible ranking range: 8-13

Alabama still maintains a reasonable chance to move up with that (relatively) low drop score of 197.125. A 198.000 at SECs would be enough to move ahead of Michigan State and clinch a spot in the top 9, while 197.600 is enough to clinch a spot in the top 10. 

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 197.650
Possible ranking range: 8-13

Oregon State has a slightly lower maximum than the teams ranked above, so while getting up as high as #8 is possible, any chance to do so will be very dependent on those teams. Oregon State will be eyeing a 197.950, which would clinch a final ranking no lower than 11th.

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 197.590
Possible ranking range: 9-13

Auburn cannot move into the top 8 now so will not be a top-2 seed at regionals and will have to work from the underdog position. With a lower maximum than Denver, it’s also possible for Auburn to get dropped to 13th place and a #4 regionals seeding. While everything is pretty dependent on other teams, Auburn would love a 197.675 to at least create an opportunity to challenge #9 Michigan State as well as Alabama and Oregon St.

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 197.620
Possible ranking range: 9-13

Denver cannot fall any lower than its current ranking of 13th (though if the current rankings all hold, would have to switch spots with #14 Arizona State in order to avoid a regionals host conflict with UCLA as they would both be in the 4-5-12-13 regional). Denver will be aiming for that 198.000 at Big 12s, as that would ensure passing Auburn regardless of what Auburn does at SECs.

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 197.290
Possible ranking range: 14-18

Arizona State can’t go any higher than 14th, but the main goal will be retaining a place in the top 16 and having a regionals seeding. A 197.350 at Pac-12s clinches a seeding for ASU.

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 197.225
Possible ranking range: 14-19

Ohio State will have the same top-16 aims, knowing that a 197.550 would ensure that Arkansas cannot pass regardless of how well Arkansas scores, meaning that a regionals seeding is set. 

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 197.210
Possible ranking range: 14-20

Because Arkansas has a lower maximum than ASU, Ohio St, and Missouri, Arkansas would be knocked out of a seeded position should all those teams record season highs on Saturday. Arkansas needs at least one of them to be just OK and will be looking for at minimum a 196.950 to present the opportunity to try to pass ASU and Ohio St should they have misses.

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 197.285
Possible ranking range: 14-20

Missouri currently sits outside the seeded positions and in the geographical placement positions (though since Missouri is closest to Oklahoma, finishing in 16th and 17th would probably result in the same thing, a spot in Oklahoma’s 1-8-9-16 regional). Still, Missouri won’t want to stay outside the top 16 and can clinch a seeded spot with a 197.500 at SECs. 

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 197.050
Possible ranking range: 16-21

Georgia has only the very most outside chance of getting into the top 16, but it is possible with a maximum NQS of 197.050, which would tie Arkansas in 16th should Arkansas not improve on its NQS (and Missouri and Stanford and Minnesota not improve enough either). Georgia would then get a top-16 spot on the tiebreak.

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 197.085
Possible ranking range: 15-21

Like Stanford, Minnesota is still in it for a regional seeding, but in this case it would take at least a 197.425 at Big 10s and then help.

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 196.870
Possible ranking range: 21-24

Southern Utah heads up the group of teams that are safe to qualify for regionals but cannot get a seeding.

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 196.835
Possible ranking range: 21-28

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 196.975
Possible ranking range: 18-29

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 196.760
Possible ranking range: 22-29

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 196.750
Possible ranking range: 22-29

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 196.825
Possible ranking range: 21-30

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 196.760
Possible ranking range: 22-30

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 196.750
Possible ranking range: 22-31

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 196.705
Possible ranking range: 23-31

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 196.620
Possible ranking range: 26-34

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 196.505
Possible ranking range: 30-35

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 196.510
Possible ranking range: 30-36

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 196.580
Possible ranking range: 28-36

Penn State is the final locked team, using a 197 road score over the weekend to get to safety.

From here on, there are just three open spots remaining and five teams eligible for them, which is much fewer than usual.

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 196.415
Possible ranking range: 31-37

BYU is the first team that is not yet safe to advance to regionals but does control its own fate and can guarantee advancing to the postseason with a 196.200 regardless of what anyone else does. 

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 196.450
Possible ranking range: 30-38

Exactly like BYU, Boise State is not yet safe after putting up a non-counter over the weekend but can clinch regionals with a 196.200 at the conference championship. So if you happen to be watching MRGCs on Saturday, 196.200 is the queen of all scores.  

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 196.320
Possible ranking range: 34-38

North Carolina did the necessary job over the weekend to stay in the top 36 but is not safe yet and, because San Jose State has a higher peak NQS, will not be able to control its own regionals destiny. North Carolina will have to score as high as possible at EAGLs on Saturday and then wait and see what happens at the MPSF championship later in the day.

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 196.370
Possible ranking range: 32-38

While San Jose State currently sits in 37th and on the outside of the regionals spots, the team will also know that a 196.400 would be enough to clinch a spot at regionals regardless of anyone else’s scores. That’s the score North Carolina will be desperately rooting doesn’t happen.

Maximum NQS after conference championships: 196.255

Davis was the rare team that got a high enough score to stay alive over the weekend—but is still definitely the underdog when it comes to regionals qualification. Davis would have to score at least 196.575 at conference championships AND get some help from both North Carolina and San Jose to have a shot. 

All remaining teams have been eliminated from regionals contention.